The Financial Risks of Climate Change

"The Financial Risks of Climate Change" was produced for the ABI by climate catastrophe risk modelling experts AIR Worldwide Corporation and the Met Office. Using current climate and insurance catastrophe models, it examined the financial implications of the widely predicted temperature increases of two, four and six degrees Celsius on the insured cost of flood and windstorm damage in the UK, and of typhoons in China.

The study highlights that:

·In the UK, the average annual insured losses from river flooding and flash floods could rise by 14% to £633 million, based on a four-degree rise in global temperatures which could occur as early as 2060. The average annual windstorm losses could rise by 25% to £827 million, due to changes in ‘storm tracks’, along which cyclones travel.

·The insured cost of extreme flood losses occurring on average once every 100 years in Great Britain could rise by 30% to £5.4 billion. The costs of windstorms occurring on average once every 100 years could rise by 14% to £7.3 billion.

·Wales and the south west region of the UK could be most badly affected. In the south west, average annual flood and wind damage insured losses could rise by 29% and 24% respectively.

·In China, average annual insured losses from typhoons could jump by 32% to £345 million, based on a global temperature rise of four degrees.

According to Nick Starling, the ABI’s Director of General Insurance and Health, “These findings have serious implications for insurers, householders, businesses and governments. The continued widespread availability of property insurance in the future depends on taking action now to manage the threats of climate change. A two-degree temperature rise may be inevitable, but we can limit further increases. The clear message to world leaders meeting at the UN’s Copenhagen Climate Change Summit in December is that they must reach agreement on ambitious emission reduction targets. And, closer to home, the UK Government needs to push ahead with the Flood and Water Management Bill, and ensure long-term investment in flood management as a priority, so that the long-term flood risk is better managed.”

Rainwater as a Safe Drinking Water

An Australian study said that drinking untreated rainwater is safe for the health. Researchers from Melbourne's Monash University looked at 300 homes that used rainwater as their primary drinking source.



The study confirms that expanded use of rainwater for many household purposes can be considered and in current times of drought, rainwater should be encouraged as a resource.

The study came amid growing concern about the environmental impact of bottled water products, which are often transported long distances and packaged in plastics which clogs landfills.

DID YOU KNOW?

Research using the Met Office's Climate Model in UK supports the suggestion that low-level clouds may be reduced by climate change, causing further global warming. Low-level clouds such as stratocumulus, play a vital role in keeping the Earth's climate cool by reflecting sunlight and climate researchers have been studying how they might react to a changing climate on a regional scale.

Climate Triggers!

Climate change is uncertain and it will not spread uniformly across the globe. According to the recent climate map launched at the Science Museum UK, temperature increase of more than 2 degrees will have huge impacts on the world. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes (particularly the Arctic) will have larger temperature increases.

The focus is being given on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise. Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of the vital dry season glacial melt water source.

Climate Change Affecting the Great Barrier Reef

According to the recent 'Reef Outlook Report', the rate of climate change backed by the Australian Government would result in 'severe mass coral bleaching' and threaten the habitats of key species on the reef resulting in a 'catastrophic damage'. It has been found by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority's report that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have to be kept under 400 parts per million (ppm) in order to save important animal species and coral from low to medium vulnerability to climate change.

The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 387 ppm. The report finds that if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaches 450 ppm, which is predicted for 2035, it would result in 'severe mass bleaching' and destroy the reef's ability to grow new coral. This could result in a complete death of the reef by 2050.

Carbon Neutral Business

Carbon neutral means that – through a transparent process of calculating emissions, reducing those emissions and offsetting residual emissions – net carbon emissions equal zero.

Measuring Green House Gas emissions is fundamental to our understanding of climate change and a vital first step towards managing carbon impacts. Businesses will play a vital part to a low carbon future. So it is essential for them to identify their emissions and work towards reducing them to save energy and money.

Tsunami Initiation

A sudden offset changes the elevation of the ocean and initiates a water wave that travels outward from the region of sea-floor disruption. Tsunamis can travel all the way across the ocean generating destructive waves.

Tsunamis are initiated by a sudden displacement of the ocean, commonly caused by vertical deformation of the ocean floor during earthquakes. Other causes such as deformation by landslides and volcanic processes also generate tsunamis.
The speed of this wave depends on the ocean depth and is typically about as fast as a commercial passenger jet (about 0.2 km/s or 712 km/hr). This is relatively slow compared to seismic waves, so we are often alerted to the dangers of the tsunami by the shaking before the wave arrives. The trouble is that the time to react is not very long in regions close to the earthquake that caused the tsunami.

In deep water tsunamis are not large and pose no danger. They are very broad with horizontal wavelengths of hundreds of kilometers and surface heights much smaller, about one meter.

Tsunamis pose no threat in the deep ocean because they are only a meter or so high in deep water. But as the wave approaches the shore and the water shallows, all the energy that was distributed throughout the ocean depth becomes concentrated in the shallow water and the wave height increases.

When a tsunami approaches the shore, the water depth decreases, the front of the wave slows down, the wave grows dramatically, and surges on land.
Typical heights for large tsunamis are on the order of 10s of meters and a few have approached 90 meters (about 300 feet). These waves are typically more devastating to the coastal region than the shaking of the earthquake that caused the tsunami. Even the more common tsunamis of about 10-20 meters can "wipe clean" coastal communities.
Deadly tsunamis occur about every one to two years and they have at times killed thousands of people. In 1992-93 three large tsunamis occurred: one in Japan, Indonesia, and Nicaragua. All struck at night and devastated the local communities.

Estimating Earthquake

Earthquakes can be estimated by hazard maps, which are constructed by examining

· The earthquake history of the region to estimate the probability of an earthquake
· The expected shaking intensity produced by the earthquake (often expressed as a peak acceleration)
· The frequency of the shaking, the distance from the fault
· The regional geology and site conditions

Hazard mapping is to estimate the maximum level of shaking expected during the lifetime of a building. Constructing accurate hazard maps is a challenge and remains the focus of much Geoscience research.

Climate Change Effects on Plants

Climate change is projected to cause major changes in plant life distribution. For instance giant ferns and marsh plants are forerunners of other kinds of vegetation that developed more recently in Earth's history. As global temperatures increase and other aspects of climate evolve, researchers expect many plant zones to shift away from the equator and toward the poles.

Plants affect climate by absorbing and emitting gases and radiation, so changes in plant distribution due to climate change could produce complex feedbacks that reshape the atmosphere.

Researchers in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Climate and Global Dynamics Division are addressing a global rise in sea level of 10 to 20 centimeters during the 20th century, probably resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect, a general warming trend caused by the increase of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere.

The melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of oceans by warming are factors in sea-level rise. Very large rises in sea level eventually would cause flooding in major coastal cities and large parts of low-lying countries.

Effects of Climate change in South Asia

Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned that more than 1.6 billion people in South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal, could face acute water and food shortages from the melting of the Himalayan glaciers as a result of climate change. The retreat of the glacier from the Himalayas would trigger floods, droughts and erratic rainfall that could lead to crop failures.

Analysis of the current trend suggested that by 2050, the climate-induced heat and water-stress would phenomenally lower the yields of irrigated crops – maize (17%), wheat (12%) and rice (10%). The resulting food scarcities will shoot-up food prices and reduce the calorific intake across the region.

Almost half of the world’s absolute poor live in South Asia, where they tend to depend in rain-fed agriculture and live in settlements that are highly exposed to climate variability said ADB. Some of the measures discussed to tackle the problems are agricultural adaptation techniques, investments in irrigation expansion and water resources management, farm-to-market roads, and agriculture research and dissemination to reduce the region’s vulnerability to climate change.

Regional Conference on Climate Change

The statement, agreed during the South-Asian Climate Conference on September 01, 2009 held in Kathmandu, said that South Asia including Hindu-Kush Himalayan region is a climate change hotspot influencing half the world’s population and ecosystems from the mountains to the coast and the seas. All the participating countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka) agreed that the climate change is affecting the natural resources. The recent effect on water resources is the alarming one. The agreement will call for financing mechanism on adaptation and transfer of technologies from the developed countries to ensure green development during the United Nations Conference at Copenhagen in December.

Climate Alarm

Global climatic change has dramatically affected the weather patterns in Nepal, hence affecting the crop yield and resulting in severe food shortages. It has been found that the crop production has roughly halved than the previous years.

Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change. It is suffering from extreme temperatures, high intense rainfalls and increased unpredictability in the weather system though it's contribution of total Green House Gas emissions in the world is just 0.025%.

The Himalayan glaciers are rapidly reducing and it has been predicted that they might disappear within 30 years, affecting more than one billion people across Asia. So, the Nepal Government and related international organisations should create awareness about climate change and its likely inpacts worldwide. The British Aid Agency said that immediate actions to ease food shortages in affected areas, awareness of climate change and a comprehensive approach to institutionalise Disaster Risk Reduction should be adopted.

Koshi Tappu Reserve

Koshi Tappu Reserve, Nepal's first Ramsar site, covers 175 sq. km. and covers three districts of Nepal - Sunsari, Udaypur and Sarlahi. It contains some of the most endangered species such as Arna (Wild water buffaloes)and various bird species. The reserve contains the highest number of bird species in the country (an amazing 863 species are found inside the park, nearly 95% of the total 900 species found in Nepal).

The recent problems being faced by the reserve are:
1. The Reserve's wetlands are drying up and the increasing deposition of silt in the wetlands is further killing the habitat.
2. The invasion of Mikania micarantha, locally known as 'mile-a-minute' plant, has covered at least 70% of the reserve.
3. Rising Temperature due to climate change is affecting the wild-life habitat.
4. Flooding and no measures to control it.
5. The forests have been almost stripped bare, and some buffer areas of the reserve have been turned into farmlands by the locals who live on the periphery.
6. Over grazing of domesticated buffaloes by the local farmers is affecting the plant species.
7. Lack of preventive strategy and Wild-life Conservation policy is affecting the overall environment of the reserve.

Biogas Plants

Agricultural and food industry waste products can be used to obtain energy – Energy from Waste. Waste products that can be used for energy production are pig and cattle manure, chicken dung, slaughter-house wastes, spent grains, distillery slop, sugar beet press cake, municipal waste water and others.
Recycling of biological wastes gives you following:

- Biogas
Biogas produced in the process of anaerobic digestion can be used as conventional natural gas for heating and energy production. It can be compressed and used as a vehicle fuel; or can be pumped and stored. So you can have your own gas as well.

- Electricity
From one cubic meter of biogas 2 kWh of electricity can be produced (by combusting biogas in co-generation unit)

- Heat
ZORGTM biogas plants produce heat after cooling generator without any additional gas combustion.

- Biological fertilizer
Biologically digested biomass becomes ecologically clear fertilizer (bio-humus) that increases crops yield up to 40-50%.

- Waste products utilization
Natural biological wastes like manure can not be used as a fertilizer at least for 3 years (it should be stored in lagoons). After waste recycling in ZORGTM biogas plant, it is ready for usage without any additional treatment.

- Fuel for vehicles
After some treatment and CO2 removal biogas is pure methane that can be used as vehicle fuel

Indigenous Group want Stake in Environment

Indigenous communities are among the first to face direct consequences of climate change due to their dependence on nature and its resources. According to the experts from various indigenous communities it is unfair to exclude them while devising any environmental plans and policies by the government, concerned authorities and organizations. It has been said that the government has denied them any benefits from the sharing mechanism on carbon trading which was earlier committed in international forums. The experts also pointed out that they should be given the right to deny any programmes which might have adverse effect to the environment, natural resources and indigenous communities.

Affect of Climate Change in Developing Countries

Climate change could deepen poverty in developing countries due to the adverse climatic events, such as heat waves, drought and heavy rains. Urban workers in Bangladesh, Mexico and Zambia were found to be the most at risk, as the cost of food drives them into poverty.

Southeast Asia showed a projected 40% increase in the magnitude of the worst rainfall; central Africa showed a projected 1000% increase in the magnitude of the worst heat waves; and the Mediterranean showed a projected 60% increase in the worst drought.

A statistical analysis was used to determine grain productivity shocks that would correspond in the magnitude to the climate extremes, and then the economic impact of the supply shock was determined by the researchers from Purdue University, Washington.

Algae as source of bio-fuel

It has been believed that algae can help replace petroleum or fuels made from crops like corn and soybeans. Algae as the source of bio-fuel has gathered new interest and investment amid a search for energy sources that will limit carbon dioxide emissions blamed for climate change.

Its advantage is that it absorbs carbon dioxide, and thus can be used to 'scrub' emissions from coal-burning power plants and produce ethanol fuel. In a sign of the new enthusiasm, ExxonMobil announced in mid-July it would invest up to 600 million dollars in an alliance with biotech firm Synthetic Genomics to make a new bio-fuel from photosynthetic algae.

Ozone Pollution

Elevated ozone levels cause health problems, premature deaths, reduces agricultural crop yields, damage plants in semi-natural ecosystems and corrosion of physical infrastructure and cultural heritage.

The key findings of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on ground level ozone formation in Europe are:

•The longest time series in Airbase (14–16 years) are available for four countries. These indicate that ground-level ozone has declined significantly in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, falling during the 1990s and leveling off thereafter. No significant trends were identified in Austria and Switzerland.
•Inter-annual variations in weather conditions have a significant impact on yearly ozone levels. Discerning the effect of reduced ozone precursor emissions therefore requires long time series of data from stable monitoring networks. Unfortunately, extended time series are generally unavailable, particularly in southern Europe where ozone pollution is a major problem.
•Several unknown complicate attempts to model ozone levels. Significant uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude and distribution of inter-continental inflows of ozone and its precursors, and the size and distribution of isoprene emissions from plants.
•The importance of meteorological conditions in ozone formation suggests that predicted changes in climate could also lead to increased ground-level ozone in many regions of Europe.
•Computer modeling was used to estimate the ozone levels that would arise if precursor emissions declined (as countries reported) or if they held constant at 1995 levels. The ozone levels recorded in 18 countries across Europe correspond more closely to the model output based on the assumption of declining emissions.
•Ground-level ozone has become a hemispheric or even global air pollution and climate change problem. Ozone abatement should be integrated into local, regional and global strategies and measures that simultaneously address emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.

Ozone Pollution

Elevated ozone levels cause health problems, premature deaths, reduces agricultural crop yields, damage plants in semi-natural ecosystems and corrosion of physical infrastructure and cultural heritage.

The key findings of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on ground level ozone formation in Europe are:

•The longest time series in Airbase (14–16 years) are available for four countries. These indicate that ground-level ozone has declined significantly in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, falling during the 1990s and leveling off thereafter. No significant trends were identified in Austria and Switzerland.
•Inter-annual variations in weather conditions have a significant impact on yearly ozone levels. Discerning the effect of reduced ozone precursor emissions therefore requires long time series of data from stable monitoring networks. Unfortunately, extended time series are generally unavailable, particularly in southern Europe where ozone pollution is a major problem.
•Several unknown complicate attempts to model ozone levels. Significant uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude and distribution of inter-continental inflows of ozone and its precursors, and the size and distribution of isoprene emissions from plants.
•The importance of meteorological conditions in ozone formation suggests that predicted changes in climate could also lead to increased ground-level ozone in many regions of Europe.
•Computer modeling was used to estimate the ozone levels that would arise if precursor emissions declined (as countries reported) or if they held constant at 1995 levels. The ozone levels recorded in 18 countries across Europe correspond more closely to the model output based on the assumption of declining emissions.
•Ground-level ozone has become a hemispheric or even global air pollution and climate change problem. Ozone abatement should be integrated into local, regional and global strategies and measures that simultaneously address emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.

Eco-Innovation

Eco – innovation is an innovation where its use is less environmentally harmful than the use of relevant alternatives. This plays a critical role in sustainable development and addressing climate change. The major activities for supporting eco-innovation are by improving environmental impact, identifying supply chain opportunities and considering global issues.

Building as a System

Proper operational control of energy use is often a starting point for making cost-effective improvements and reducing carbon emissions. On the other hand it is also helpful to recognise a building as a dynamic system - with energy consumption influenced by its site and orientation, building envelop micro-climate, occupant behaviour, and landscaping and the surrounding vegetation. For example, ground soil and groundwater are both warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer than the ambient air temperature. Ground source pumps use these temperature differentials to pre-cool incoming air and reduce the energy requirement of air conditioners in summer, and do the reverse in winter.

Construction materials can play an important role, such as; masonry has a higher thermal mass than glass and steel, and therefore maintains a more even temperature. The lag time between heating and cooling can be used to maintain interior temperatures and reduce air conditioning loads.

Building occupants can be motivated to reduce internal heat gains in the summer by ensuring lights, computers, printers and other electrical equipment is turned off when not in use. Meanwhile staff can be encouraged not to overcool buildings simply because air conditioning is available. In fact it is better to encourage casual wear on hotter days to reduce cooling requirements.

Landscaping can provide a shade canopy in the summer, lock up carbon through photosynthesis, and reduce ambient temperatures through evapo-transpiration. Broad-leaf deciduous trees in particular have canopies which reduce passive solar gain in the summer while allowing it when needed in the winter.

This type of holistic view is easier for new-builds, where such considerations can be factored in at the planning stage. Options for cost-effective improvements are more limited with existing buildings. However, renovation does present real opportunities to improve the building envelope to manage heat flow. Natural ventilation can be improved by considering the placement of internal partition walls that do not impede cross ventilation, and windows can be retrofitted to make better use of night time cooling to lower cooling requirements during the day.

Warning over threat to South East Asian Coral

According to a new report on climate change by WWF, it was said that coral reefs could dissappear from the world's most diverse marine ecosystem by the end of the century. The effect will be viewed in the coasts, reefs and seas of Indonesia, the Phillippines, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Timor Leste. The region, which covers just 1% of the earth's surface, includes 30% of the world's coral reefs, 76% of its reef building coral species and more than 35% of its coral reef fish species, as well as providing vital spawning grounds for other economically important fish such as tuna.

This shows an urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. The goal should be towards saving our natural resource and protect the lives and livelihoods of the people.

Technology in Environmental Sector

With the growing need of scientists and specialists for solving environmental problems in the world, various technologies are simultaneously being introduced. Technology in environmental sector is an essential portion on problem-solving; from searching soluitons on climate change to sustainable environmental management. One of the popular technology is GIS (Geographical Information System) which is being used on finding water spillages, drainage problems, deforestration etc.

However, technology is not everything in itself. Of course, having the technology is one thing, making it work to the environmental advantage is another. A high level of commitment and team work is essential to achieve the benefits. The major goal should be to make the whole idea work, i.e. technology cum environment.